Prior
to independence in 1960, Nigeria economy largely depended on agriculture;
contributing to over 80% of her export earning and above 60% in her gross
domestic product. However, with the discovery of oil in large quantity and the
rise of oil price in the international market early 1970s, oil refining
overtook agriculture as the dominant sector of the economy.
Consequently,
oil revenue grew above 200%, this boom in the economy from revenue generated
from the sales of oil was not properly and efficiently used. The period was
characterized by high profile of Corruption, mismanagement of the oil funds,
policy inconsistency and lack of technical know-how.
Despite the enormous amount
generated from the sales of oil, Nigeria is still called developing countries.
Noko(2011), argues that between 1990- 2005, Nigeria earnings from oil grew at
an average of 10.6%, yet the number of people living on a less than
US$1.25 per day over the years has
increased to 36%.(AFRODAD,2005 ; world bank, 2008).
Our
country endured almost 30 years of military rule in the four decades of her
independence with negative consequences on its socio-economic situation. Under
military rule, loans were irresponsibly contracted by the military leadership
who plundered the nation’s wealth including external loans for personal
enrichment. During these periods, corruption and looting were at rampage and serious
violation of human rights. Apart from the fact that military rule is
characterized by lack of transparency, accountability and good governance. Much
of the failure of policy and lack of development has been attributed to the
abnormal situation where country is denied democracy and the rule of law, but
rather forcefully subject to military rule.(AFRODAD, 2005). The hope that the
country lost glory, relief, development and rapid socio-economic growth became
dashed as “misguided macroeconomics and debts management policies under
civilian government have meet continued sluggish growth of real GDP, high
inflation and deepening poverty”.(AFRODAD, 2005).
Nigeria despite the advent of
democracy entered the third millennium with poor economic record. Between 1999
and 2003, growth in real output averaging 3.5% per annum and with an average
population growth rate of 2.8% per annum. This economic picture looks bleak and
far behind the required minimum growth rate of real GDP of 7% per annual to
significantly reduce the number of people living in absolute poverty by half in
2015 and lead to the realization of the Millennium Development Goals(UNDP,
2006).
The
2010 report by the office of the senior special assistant to the president of
Nigeria on MDGs reveals that the macroeconomics performance in Nigeria has been
buoyed by better fiscal and debt sustainability level and growth improvement.
This he stated has taken growth from the “below 1% level it maintained in the
past five years and stabilized it at above six percent since the return of
democracy. Growth, it observes has come largely from non-oil sector, mostly
agriculture and service sector. The oil sector account for less than 25% of the
GDP despite providing 95% of foreign earnings,
and 65% of government revenue.
Table
below shows the Nigeria macroeconomic performance from 1990 to 2009(source: CBN
statistical bulletin).
SOME SELECTED MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS IN NIGERIA
(1990-2009).
|
Economic
indicators
|
1990
|
2000
|
2001
|
2002
|
2003
|
2004
|
2005
|
2006
|
2007
|
2008
|
2009
|
|
GDP
Growth
%
|
8.2
|
5.4
|
4.6
|
3.5
|
9.6
|
6.6
|
5.8
|
5.3
|
5.7
|
6.0
|
6.7
|
|
Oil
sector
Growth
%
|
5.6
|
11.1
|
5.2
|
-5.2
|
23.9
|
3.3
|
-1.7
|
-3.7
|
-5.7
|
-6.2
|
-1.3
|
|
Non-oil
sector growth %
|
8.6
|
4.4
|
2.9
|
4.5
|
5.2
|
7.8
|
8.4
|
9.5
|
9.2
|
9.0
|
8.3
|
|
External
reserve % of GDP
|
na
|
na
|
na
|
na
|
7.7
|
11.4
|
24.4
|
36.5
|
42.6
|
52.99
|
62.4
|
|
External
debt/GDP
|
106.5
|
64.9
|
57.3
|
72.1
|
61.1
|
84.5
|
69.2
|
-7.4
|
4.0
|
17.5
|
9.28
|
|
Domestic
debt/GDP
|
31.3
|
32.2
|
36.6
|
26.1
|
28.6
|
25.3
|
20.8
|
18.6
|
19.2
|
15.25
|
12.85
|
|
Overall
Bop/GDP
|
-2.1
|
6.9
|
0.5
|
10.3
|
-2.3
|
5.2
|
10.5
|
12.7
|
1.4
|
8.02
|
9.12
|
|
Inflation
rate %
|
7.5
|
6.9
|
18.9
|
12.9
|
22.2
|
15
|
17.9
|
8.2
|
5.6
|
11.6
|
11.5
|
|
Average
official exchange rate. Naira/dollar
|
9.9
|
101.7
|
111.7
|
121
|
127.8
|
132.8
|
132.9
|
128.5
|
127.4
|
139.27
|
142.89
|
Source: CBN annual report and statement of account (various
year)
CBN statistical bulletin vol. 17 Dec. 2006
National
bureau of statistics
Report
in 2005 by National Bureau of statistics (NBS) and central bank of Nigeria
statistical bulletin vol. 17 December 2006 identified two major development
policy framework introduced by the federal government after the millennium
declaration, as project that contributed to advancing the achievement of the
MDGs. These development policy frameworks were the national economic
empowerment and development strategy (NEEDS) and the state economic empowerment
and development strategy (SEEDS), which were both implemented between 2004 and
2007. Although they were not developed exclusively for the MDGs, many of the
targets were aligned with the MDGs.
In
2006, in line with public expenditure reforms and the enactment of the fiscal
responsibility act, medium term sector strategies(MTSS) were developed. This
was to guide the preparation and implementation of the medium-term expenditure
framework (MTEF). This framework earmarked about 57% of total capital
expenditure for MDGs related sector. A longer term growth and development
framework, Nigeria vision 20:2020 was also developed for the country. It simply
foresee Nigeria as being among the twenty largest economies by the year 2020.
The growth prospects assumed by the vision quite apart from the policy
interventions for the MDGs are expected to make substantial contribution to
poverty reduction.
However,
to justify the existence of weak project and planning, the government of the
federal republic of Nigeria has on occasion, over the years modified a few
target and refocused them to reflect local peculiarities as well as targets
that are thought to be more specific and measurable problems. These do not
still rule out the existence of many more challenges.
The
Midpoint assessment of the Millennium Development Goals (2000-2007) by the then
president Umaru Musa Yar’adua administration reveals that the level of
collaboration between, civil society organization and the development partners
in order to speed up progress. In many areas, the problem is not necessary lack
of defects in current policy and programme, but more crucially implementation
bottlenecks which would make appreciable difference when removed. Critics in
several term forums and publications have all upheld the need for this
collaboration but less quality avenues have been developed for effective
collaboration between groups
“The
problem of man is less, his knowledge of wrong and right and more, his lack of
the capacity and will do right and refuge wrong”. In 2010, Afam Agbaka, a
political science researcher on doctoral fellowship in Japan remarked. “The
level of commitment of policy makers and those who implement them to changing
the poor economic situation for the better has a strong correlation with
societal class destruction between then and the commonness”. In agreement with
his postulation, the mid-point assessment was carried out through a
participatory approach. In addition to the representative composition of the
steering committee that provided logistic and technical support to the
preparation of the report, the consultative and validation forum were made up
of participants from about forty ministries, departments and partners and civil
society organization. The academic community was represented by the research
institutions that coordinated the drafting and editing of the report. Attempts
were made to include some individuals termed as “grass root number” all with
the aim of carrying everyone along for effective and efficient fulfillment of
the MDGS. The mid-point assessment also observed that the macroeconomics
foundations for pro-poor growth in Nigeria are more being today than they were
about one or two decades ago. Impressive progress has been made in meeting the
targets of the National Economic Empowerments and development strategy (NEEDS
OF 2004-2007).
However,
we yet to translate these improvements in our macroeconomic environment into
improved quality of life given the poverty level of 54.4 percent in the
country. Hence, the report acknowledges the implementation of the following
activities;
·
Implementation of
debt relief gain.
·
Monitoring and
evaluation initiatives of MDGS office.
·
Benchmarking
economic governance at the state level.
·
Implementation of
social safety nets (youth empowerment programme and conditional cash transfer).
·
Conditional
grants to state government and MDGs needs assessment.
The
federal government was quoted to have claimed that these activities have
yielded positive results. All this notwithstanding, the key development
constraint identified by the report include weak governance (especially at the
lower tier of government), poor state of physical infrastructure, limited
access of micro, small and medium enterprises to formal financial system and
weak absorptive capacity.
The
mid-term assessment of the MDGS by the Nigeria government observed data
inadequacy and inconsistency as a major challenge faced in carrying out this
assessment. She recommended the need to institutionalize regular national
socio-economic data generation through all the three tier of government that
will capture all relevant MDGS targets and indicators. The table below
displayed progress in MDGS as adopted from mid-term assessment in 2007.
TABLE 2
THE EXPECTED IMPACT IN 2015 AND RATING
OF PROGRESS TOWARDS TARGET:
|
GOALS
|
1990
|
2000
|
2007
|
TARGET
2015
|
PROGRESS
TOWARDS
TARGET
|
|
Goal
1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger.
Absolute
PP1(US$1 day) %
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
21.4
|
SLOW
|
|
Relatives
%
|
42.7
|
66
|
54.4
|
21.4
|
Slow
|
|
Population
(millions)
|
91.5
|
91.5
|
140
|
-
|
Slow
|
|
Population
under poverty (millions).
|
39.07
|
39.07
|
67.11
|
-
|
Slow
|
|
%
of population below minimum level of dietary energy consumption.
|
13
|
13
|
-
|
5.2
|
Good
|
|
%
of underweight under 5 children
|
35.7
|
31
|
25
|
18
|
Slow
|
|
Goal
2: Achieve education. Net enrolment
ratio in primary education.
|
68
|
95
|
89.6
|
100
|
Good
|
|
Proportion
of pupils starting grade one who reach grade five.
|
67
|
97
|
74
|
100
|
Good
|
|
Primary
six completion rate, literacy rate of 15-24 years old.
|
58
|
76.7
|
67.5
|
100
|
Good
|
|
Goal
3: promote gender equality and empower women. Ratio of boys to girls in primary education (girls
per 100 boys)
|
76
|
78
|
93.6
|
100
|
Good
|
|
Ratio
of girls to boys in secondary education (girls per 100 boys) ratio of girls
to boys in tertiary education (girls per 100 boys).
|
75
|
81
|
97.6
|
100
|
Good
|
|
Share
of women in wage employment in the non-agricultural sector.
|
46
|
66
|
-
|
100
|
Good
|
|
Seat
held by women in National parliament.
|
1
|
3.1
|
7.7
|
30
|
Slow
|
|
Goal
4: reduce child mortality. Infant
mortality rate(per 100 live birth).
|
91
|
81.38
|
110
|
30.3
|
Worsening
|
|
Under
5 mortality rate(per 100 live birth)
|
191
|
183.75
|
201
|
63.7
|
Worsening
|
|
%
of one year old fully immunized against measles.
|
46
|
32.8
|
60
|
100
|
Good
|
|
Goal
5: improve maternal health. Maternal
mortality ratio
|
-
|
704
|
800
|
100
|
Worsening
|
|
Births
attended by skilled health personnel
|
45
|
42
|
36.3
|
100
|
Worsening
|
|
Goal
6: combat HIV/AIDs, malaria and other diseases. HIV prevalence among pregnant young women aged 15-24
|
-
|
5.4
|
4.3
|
-
|
Slow
|
|
Young
people aged 15-24 who both correctly identify ways of preventing the sexual
transmission of HIV and who reject major misconception about HIV
transmission.
|
-
|
-
|
25.9
|
100
|
Slow
|
|
Young
people aged 15-24 reporting the use of condom during sexual intercourse with
a non-regular sexual partner.
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
100
|
Lack
of data
|
|
Children
orphaned by HIV and aids prevalence and death rates associated with malaria.
Prevalence and death risk associated by tuberculosis.
|
-
|
-
|
1.97
|
-
|
Lack
of data
|
|
Goal
7: Ensure environmental sustainability. Land area covered by forest.
|
-
|
14.6
|
12.6
|
20
|
Worsening
|
|
Gas
flared
|
68
|
53
|
34
|
0
|
Slow
|
|
Energy
use(kg oil equivalent) per US and 1 GDP (PPP)
|
-
|
-
|
1.5
|
-
|
Lack
of data
|
|
Carbon
dioxide emission (per capita).
|
54
|
4799
|
2500
|
100
|
Slow
|
|
Total
population with access to basic sanitation. %
|
-
|
42
|
42.9
|
100
|
Worsenning
|
|
Total
population with access to safe
drinking water %
|
39
|
54
|
49.1
|
100
|
Lack
of data (slow)
|
|
People
with access with secure tenure %
|
-
|
38.4
|
61.2
|
-
|
Worsening
|
|
Resident
housing constructive index (ACI)(proxy).
|
-
|
53
|
31
|
-
|
Worsening
|
|
Goal
8: Develop a global partnership for development. Per capita official development assistance to
Nigeria (in US$).
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Debt
services as a percentage of effort of goods & services.
|
-
|
9
|
1.2
|
-
|
Good
|
|
Private
sector investment (US $m)
|
50
|
75
|
8100
|
-
|
Improving
|
|
Personal
computer (per 100 people).
|
0.45
|
0.73
|
27.41
|
-
|
Good
|
|
Internet
access (%)
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
1.9
|
-
|
Slow
|