RICE: EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE PRODUCTIVITY OF RICE IN ABAKALIKI LOCAL GOVERNMENT AREA OF EBONYI STATE

Introduction

Climate change in one of the most serious environmental threats facing mankind worldwide (Anselm and Toafeeq, 2010). They further argued that there is a general consensus among scientists an policy makers that the entire globe is facing a real and serious long-term threat from climate change. Climate change which is attributed to the natural climate cycle and human activities has adversely affected agricultural production and productivity in Africa. Climate change in form of extreme temperature, frequent flooding and drought and increased salinity of water supply used for irrigation has become a recurrent subject of debate globally (Ajetomobi, Abiodun and Hassan 2010).


            Anselm and Taofeeq (2010) further opined that climate change affects agriculture in several ways, including its direct impact on food production. Ajetomobi et al (2010) argued that developing countries are more likely to be negatively affected by climate change than developed countries. He further claimed that more effort have been made to quantify the economic impact of climate change on agriculture in developed countries than developing countries. Thus, for instance he argued there has been no major research carried out in Nigeria to study the economic effect of climate change on agriculture.
Objective of the Study
            The broad objective of this study is to analyze effect of climate change on the productivity of rice in Abakaliki Local government area of Ebonyi State.
The specific objective is to determine
            The relationship between the socio-economic characteristics of rice farmers and the effect of climate change on productivity of rice in the study area.
Hypothesis
            The null hypothesis tested in this study was:
Ho:      Climate change has no significant effect on the productivity of rice in the study area.
Analytical Technique
Model specification
            The multiple regression analysis was used the specific objective of the study.
Y         =          F(X1, X2, X3, X4,X5X6)
                        Implicit form
            Implicit Function
Y         =          bo + b1 x1+ b2x2 + b3 x3 + b4x4 + b5x5 + b6x6 et
                        Explicit form
Where;
Y         =          Effect of climate change on rice production
X1        =          Age (years)
X2        =          Lender
X3        =          Marital status
X4        =          Educational status
X5          =          Farm size (ha)
X6        =          Land Ownership
Et        =          Error term
bo        =          Constant
b1 – b6            =          Coefficient of multiple regression
determining the relationship between the socio-economic characteristics of the respondents on productivity of rice due to comate change.
            The dependent variable Y (rice productivity) was regressed against the independent variables which include: gender (X1), Age (X2) marital status (X3), Educational attainment (X4), farm size (X=5) and land ownership (X6).
Table (1): Multiple regression result on relationship between the socio-Economic characteristics and Effect of rice productivity in the study area.
Variable
Variable name
Regression coefficient
Std error
T-value
Sign
Contant 

17.533
2.269
7.728
0.000
X1
Age
0.039
0.036
-0.960
0.344
X2
Gender
-0.149
0.153
-0.973
0.358
X3
Marital status
0.029
0.016
0.572
0.571
X4
Educational level
-0.022
0.041
3.535
0.596
X5
Farm size
0.168
0.052
-3.229
0.003
X6
Land ownership
0.172
0.088
-1.969
0.057
R2                                =          0.726
Adjusted R2   =          0.704
Standard Error of the estimate       =          0.43634
Durbin-Watson         =          1.870
Source: survey, 2013
A multiple regression model was adopted for the analysis. Base don the analysis the corefficient of determination(R2)was 0.726. this showed that about (72%) of the variation in the dependent variable Y (rice productivity) was influenced by the combined effects of the independent variables, (X1- X6)
            From the result obtained, in table above, it indicated that gender (X1) was negatively signed and statistically insignificant. This implies that with male farmers the productivity of rice increases.
            Age (X2) on the other hand was positively signed and statistically significant at 1%.
            This means that with advance in age, rice productivity tend to increase and can be attributed to the fact that at advanced age, the farmers is married and with children, thereby increasing the labour base of the farmer and hence influence his productivity.
            The multiple regression coefficient of marital status (X3) bore positive sign and statistically significant.
            This implies that there is a positive relationship existing between the marital status and effect of climate change on rice production in the study area.
            Educational attainment (X4) showed a negative sign but was statistically. In significant, Education is a significant factor in facilitating certain agricultural activities as high education tends to improve farmers level and efficiency in agricultural activities. This is consistent with finding of Idiong (2007) who stated that vice farmers efficiency will increase with increase in their years in schooling.
            The result also indicated the coefficients of farm size (X5( and land ownership (X6) bore a positively signed but statistically significant. This implies that rice productivity will increase depending on the farm size and land ownership of the farmers in the study area.
Y         =          17.533  +  0.039  -  0.149  +  0.029 – 0.022
                        (2.269)    (0.036)   (-0.153) (0.016) (0.041)
                        + -.168  +  0.172  + et
                        (0.088)
                        (0.052)
testing of hypothesis
F-cal   =             R2(N-K)
                        1-R2(k-1)
where;
R2        =          Multiple regression determination
N         =          Sample
K         =          Number of variables
F-cal   =          ?
F-cal   =          0.726 (40-6)
1-0.726 (6-1)
F-cal   =          31.944
1.37
F-cal   =          23.32
F-cal   =          3.29
Since if F-cal is greater that F-tal, null hypothesis was rejected while alternative hypothesis was accepted. This implies that climate change have significant affect on the productivity of rice in the study area.


REFERENCES
Adejuwon, J.O. and ogunkoyo, O.O., 2006. Climate change and Food security in Nigeria. Obafemi Awolowo University press Limited; Ile-Ife.
Adenegan, K.O., Oladele, O.I. and ekkpo, M.N. 2004. Impact of Agricultural Extension and rural Development, University of Ibadan. 2(1):107.
Alimba J.O., 2011. University-community-Industry Engagement in rice Agribusiness: a focus of Ebonyi State University. In: Ogunji J.O., and Oselebe H.O. Proceedings of Ebonyi State Rice stakeholders summit. In furtherance of Ebonyi State University Industry Engagement in Rice Agribusiness Case Study. Pp. 77-82.
Anselm, A. and Toafeequ, A.A. 2010. challenges of Agricultural Adaptation to Climate change in Nigeria: A synthesis from the Literature. Field Actions Science Reports, 4:h:ttfactsreports.revues.org/678.
Atungwu, J.J. and Odedina S.A 2010. Indigenous and Emerging technology/Innovations for climate Change Adaptation in the Crop Enterprise of southwest Nigeria. In: Adebayo K. Journal of sustainable Development. A per reviewed journal of the sustainable livelihood and development for Africa 7(2). Pp 2-9.

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