Prepared for Local County Hospital
Prepared By:
KY Rural Health Works
Eric A. Scorsone, Ph.D.
UK Department of Agricultural Economics
Bethany Adams, BSMT
KY Rural Hospital Flexibility Program
UK Department of Agricultural Economics

Executive Summary
The objective of this market demand analysis was to project the future demand for wellness services associated with the development of the Bluegrass Crossings Regional Business Center Industrial Park. This analysis projects the population change in the Local County Hospital market area over the next decade and the subsequent change in market share.

The current market area for the proposed wellness center was defined on the basis of county census tracts and the current market area of Local County Hospital. In all, thirteen census tracts comprise the proposed wellness center market area, which included all of Local County, and parts of Muhlenberg, Breckinridge and Grayson Counties.

Following the estimation of the current market area and the market area population, the wellness center future patient volume was calculated. Future patient volume is based on future demand rather than current patient demand. Therefore, the market area population was adjusted to account for the impact of the industrial park. It has been estimated by this analysis that approximately 6000 new residents will move into Local County Hospital market area over the next decade. The 6000 new residents will be distributed over an eight-year period from 2003 through 2010. Consequently, approximately 750 new residents will be added to Local County Hospital total market area population. Of the 750 new residents, approximately, 570 will be added to Local County Hospital total market share per year from 2003 to 2010. The 570 new residents represent the expected change in market share that reflects the impact of the industrial park. The change in market share per year is the portion of the new incoming residents that are potentially new clients for Local County

Hospital and the Wellness Center.
According to the Centers for Disease Control, wellness visits represent 35.7 percent of all outpatient visits on a national basis. Therefore, nearly one-third of all outpatient department visits ordered or provided one or more preventive or therapeutic services. Wellness services include, for example, diet/nutrition, tobacco cessation and injury prevention. Injury prevention services are associated with employee compensation and safety programs and represent 8.1% of all wellness services.
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