THE PROSPECT OF MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS (MDGS) IN NIGERIA

ABSTRACT
This work which analysis the prospect and challenges of the new millennium development goals (MDGs) in Nigeria. Millennium development goals are eight bound inter-national development goals the world leaves endorsed at the united nation millennium summit. It aimed to reducing the pre-dominant level of poverty in the world especially the third world countries. In gathering the information; the researcher distribute questionnaire to the selected respondents and a simple face to face interview was also used.
The data collected was analysis and hypothesis was tested using chi-square (x2) test hypothesis. Recommendation made to government in meeting the target come 2015 include; aggressive investment in poverty reduction. Schemes both by the public non-governmental institutions should be embark massive investment in agriculture and rural economic development etc.           



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DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS
FACULTY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES

TABLE OF CONTENTS
TITLE PAGE: ………………………………………………………… ….       .i
APPROVAL PAGE: …………………………………………………….          ii
DEDICATION: ………………………………………………………….          iii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT: ……………………………………………….        iv
ABSTRACT: ………………………………………………………………      vi
TABLE OF CONTENTS: ……………………………..………………….        vii
CHAPTER ONE:                                                                                                   
INTRODUCTION: ……….………………………………………………         1
1.1       BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY: ……………………………….       1
1.2       STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM: ……….………………………      3
1.3       OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY: ……………………………… 4
1.4       RESEARCH QUESTION: ……………..……………………….…        5
1.5       HYPOTHESIS OF THE STUDY: …………………………………        5
1.6       RESEARCH METHODOLOGY: ……………………………….…       6
1.7       SIGNIFICANCES OF THE STUDY: ……………………………..         6
1.8       SCOPE AND LIMITATION OF THE STUDY: ………………….         7
    CHAPTER TWO:                                                                                  
LITERATURE REVIEW: ………………………………………..………         8
2.1 NIGERIA AND MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS (MDGS): …………………………………………………………………………….        8
2.2       STRUCTURE OF NIGERIA MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS: ………………………………………………………..……        18
2.3 ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL-POLITICAL PROFILE OF NIGERIA: ……………………………………………………………………………...      19
2.4       POVERTY ALLEVIATION PROGRAMMES IN NIGERIA: ………     30
CHAPTER THREE
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY: ………………………………………..         33
3.1       RESEARCH SAMPLE DESIGN: …………………………………        33
3.2       QUESTIONNAIRE DESIGN: ………………………..……………       33
3.3       POPULATION OF THE STUDY: ………………………………….      34
3.4       SAMPLE METHOD: …………………………………………….…     34
3.5       SAMPLE SIZE DETERMINATION: ……………………………          35
3.6       METHOD OF DATA ANALYSIS: …………………………………     35
3.7       SOURCES OF DATA: ………………………………………………    36
CHAPTER FOUR:
4.1       DATA PRESENTATION AND INTERPRETATION: ……..………      37
CHAPTER FIVE
SUMMARY OF FINDINGS, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION: ……………………………………………………………………………         45
5.1       SUMMARY OF FINDINGS: ……………………………………           45
5.2       CONCLUSION: ……………………………………………………      46
5.3       RECOMMENDATIONS: …………………………………………        46
REFERENCES ……………………………………………………………        48

2.1       NIGERIA AND MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS (MDGS)
Following the United Nations millennium declaration adopted at the millennium summit held between 6 - 8th September 2000 in New York. Nigeria has been committed to the realization of the millennium development goals MDGS) by 2015.
The millennium development goals summarized the development goal agreed on at international conference and world summits during the 1990s, which includes eight goals, eighteen (18) targets and over forty (40) indicators.
Millennium development goals have of today, taken a centre stage in most governmental activities in the countries at federal; state and local government level. It has been argued that Nigeria being the most populous country in African; with a vast array of natural and human resources has the potential which is enough for it to compete favourably with other countries of the G.7 (ie United state, Canada, France, Japan, Italy, Germany and United Kingdom). This view has been supported by the report of Soludo (2007), Sachs (2007) NEEDS (2004) and host of other studies on this content.
In a study, NEEDS (2004) noted that, Nigeria has the potential to become Africa’s largest economy and a major player in the global economy by virtue of its rich human and material resource endowment, while Goldman Sachs (2007a) argued that in the whole African continent only two countries have the potentials to be among the G-20 by 2020 and these counties is Egypt and Nigeria. Yet, Nigeria is having the least performance in terms of human and social indications. A report by Noko (2012) reveal that Nigeria projected to be the most favourable country to attain the G-20 in 2015 has remarkably not fared well in a good number of the MDGS goals such goals as; eradicate extreme poverty and hunger, reduce child mortality, combating of HIV/AID, malaria and other disease. Infact, statistics reveal that Egypt has reduced poverty rate from 4.5% in 1991 to 2.6 in 2007 and underweight children from 10.4% in 1990 to 7.5% in 2008 while Nigeria’s poverty rate increased from 49.2% in 1993 to 64.4% in 2004 underweight children reduced from 35.7% in 1990 to 28.7% in 2003 (United Nation, 2009).
These report from Noko (2012) and United Nation (2009) shows that Nigeria, however projected to have eminent potential of development are not faring well in reducing poverty and child mortality in the country. Hence, instead of reducing poverty rate in the country it is rather increasing at an increasing rate.
Thus, the slow pace at which Nigeria is moving towards achieving millennium development goals MDGS) led to one doubting the potential of these various studies earlier carried on the MDGS in Nigeria. Previous empirical studies such as Goldman Sachs (2007a; 2007b), Soludo (2007), NEEDS(2004) and host of others predicted more generally Nigeria’s economics potentials, but fall short of human and social indicators, which is the bedrock of financial and indeed economic development. Furthermore, studies which focus on MDGS forecasting relied heavily on baseline or naive projection of mostly, unweighted geometrical average such as Agenor. Etal(2005; 2006), White and Blondal (2011). In all this studies only one method is used in their analysis of MDGS creating vacuum in their methodology which require to be filled.
Agenor. etal (2005; 2006) used baseline projections on the basis of unweighted geometric average of forecasting Nigeria, in applying her macroeconomic framework. Thus, a serious drawback of unweighted geometric average is that, it fails to capture data trends which lead to very poor forecast. If our minds is rekindled, the problem facing Nigeria and many African countries is strategic development planning, making choice between alternatives development path, confronted with competitive global economic.
Moreover, human and capital resources have become the core on which to build strategies for future economic growth. The basis of any strategic development plans rest on social, health, environment, human and technological indicator which the new development paradigm contain (MDGS).
However, Ebonyi state Nigeria has ventured into millennium development goals, its prospect for achieving millennium development goals has been questioned given the state of underdevelopment of a good number of the rural areas. This underdevelopment state is manifested in the presence of extreme poverty & hunger in the state, increasing rate of child mortality and mal-nourished, high rate of infant death, compounding nature of malaria and other diseases on the various citizens of the state. All this mal-functioning, nature of millennium development goals in Nigeria especially Ebonyi state, warrant this study, on the empirical analysis of the prospect of Nigeria in becoming among the G-20 in 2015.

PROSPECT OF NIGERIAN MEETING MDGS BY 2015
David Hulme (20007) in a paper: The Making of the Millennium Development Goals: Human Development meets Result-based management in an imperfect world, observed that two ideas – human development and result based management- have been particularly significant in shaping the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). He explained that though they seems unlikely intellectual, they significantly influence and shape the pattern of direction of MDGs. He further observed that at time, the ideas of human development and result based management were pursued as crucial to survival of MDGs, when these ideas challenges the interests of powerful groups or nations, their principles are compromised or assiduously avoided.
In a related development, Hulme (2008) studied the process that led to the formulation and implementation of MDGs and observed that it is an incremental and ongoing process of negotiation and bargaining with no clear cut phases or precise end. He is of the view that while the key actors presents policy as an outcome of a linear rational process based on scientific analysis and weighing up evidence, the real process that they are engaged in are quite different. He explained that no leader or agency is ‘in control’ (see also Keeley and Scooneb,2003; Stone, 2006)).
Olayode (2006), argued that for MDGs objectives to be realized there is need for establishment of an appropriate political and institutional framework to guide state intervention, market reform and poverty alleviation. He observed that MDGs being benefits accrued from globalisation requires Nigeria repositioning through appropriate policy measure. He argued that with appropriate policy measure, Africa in general and Nigeria in particular can more, attract more capital flows and benefit immensely from full integration into the world economy, which will culminate into speedy realisation of the MDGs objectives.
In another development, Agbu (2006) observed that for Nigeria to part take of the benefits of MDGs, it is imperative for the country to adopt a practical approach by collaborating with the other countries of the South, and other south multilateral groups in negotiating for better terms of engagement with the developed world. He sited the membership of Nigeria in the Developing Eight (D -8), consisting of Nigeria, Iran, Indonesia, Turkey, Egypt, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Malaysia who unanimously agreed to promote trade among themselves through reforming there custom services and other policies that hinders the free flow of goods and services across their borders. This we believe is crucial to the fulfillment of MDGs objectives and targets. He advocated for attraction of FDI in the agriculture and manufacturing sectors as crucial to MDGs goals achievements as it has the capacity to increase job creation and reduce poverty knowing that about 70% of the rural populace engage in Agriculture and a strong relationship between agric and manufacturing.
Aribigbola Afolabi (2009) studied the institutional constraints to achieving the MDGs in Nigeria, using the example of Akure Millennium City and Ikaram/Ibaram Millennium Villages both in Ondo states, and observed that although both the Millennium City and Millennium Village projects have taken off as programmed, the effect of the program has not been widespread especially in Akure, though the effect of the program seems visible in the millennium village. He discovered that the problems which the programs are design to solve are still widespread and lack adequate conceptualization of the programs militating against full implementation of the project. He identified lack of conceptualization and understanding both by the implementers and the will be beneficiary (people at the grass root), over politization by the government, lack of interest on the part of grass root would-be beneficiary/ community and inadequate funding and capacity under utilization as the major problems militating against the success of the project. He recommended collective participation that will carry the community along in project design, and implementation as crucial to achievement of the MDGs and complete removal of civil service bureaucracy.
In a related development, Ajayi (2008) studied the success of MDGs in Millennium Village project and found out that Nigeria is at present off track and very slow , when it come to MDGs implementation and execution. He therefore called for a better understanding between the policy formulators and executors. Similarly, Falade (2008) observed that most African countries are backward when it comes to implementation and execution of the MDGs, when compared with other region of the world. This, he explained is due to poor technical capacity in formulating, implementing and monitoring the operational MDGs based Poverty Reduction Strategy Process (PRSPS). Hassan Arif, Patel Shela and Satherwaite David (2005) observed that MDGs represent a new attempt to increase the effectiveness of development assistance in reducing poverty with a time bound targets and strong commitment to monitor progress. They pointed out that in order to achieve these laudable MDGs objectives, it is imperative to address the need for water sanitation, health care, schools, employment and poverty crisis especially among the less developed economies.
Adam Elhirika (2005) observed that despite recent increase in average growth rate of most African countries from about 4.3 percent to 4.6 percent in 2003 and 2004 respectively, as a result of global expansion that led to higher demand and prices for commodities, a significant increase in Official Development Assistance, driven mainly by debt relief and emergency assistance, improving macroeconomic stability, the continent will have a long way to go if sustainable growth is to be achieved as specified in the MDGs targets. He identified unpredictable weather conditions, concentration of production and exports in the commodity market, and volatile external capital flows too week in comparism with those of other parts of the world. He noted that Official Development Assistance (ODA) represents the main source of development financing for many African countries, reaching over $23 million for sub-Sahara Africa in 2003, and far exceeding debt service payment in that year. This notwithstanding, aid flows to Africa remain volatile and cannot meet the MDGs financing needs even if the goal of 0.7 percent of rich countries GNP is achieved. He concluded by saying to ensure reality of MDGs, Africa’s development partners are urged to move faster to ensure all their policies – on ODA, market access and debt – are consistent with meeting MDGs. Wing Thye Woo, Gordon McCord and Jeffrey Sachs (2005) observed that MDGs offers Africa a way of escape out of poverty trap. Poverty trap being too poor to grow – they plead with the Western policymakers to fully support the MDGs and encourage increase in public investments so as to produce a large step increase in Africa’s underlying productivity, both rural and urban. They noted that foreign donors will be critical to achieving this substantial step increase.
On the other hand, Yonghyup Oh (2005) was of the opinion that MDGs is a combination of enhanced foreign intervention, more external money and top-down approach having a potential of depriving recipients of the spirit of independence as their eyes are clue to free launch offer by the donor agencies. Another area of concern as noted by Noko(2011), is the post MDGs implementation periods, in other words, what become of MDGs after 2015. He argued that since MDGs focus mainly on building up infrastructure to produce more public goods, chances are that poor funding may set in after 2015, the terminal year of MDGs, at this point, he asked what becomes of successful MDGs projects.
Roy Culpeper (2005) appreciates the global commitment to move about 50 percent poor of the world out of extreme poverty by 2015 through MDGs projects. However, he advocated for a more thorough approach on the ground that not just 50 percent, but 100 percent of the people living in poverty should be elevated. He explained that if we still had 40 percent or 50 percent of humanity struggling to subsist at between one and two dollars a day, then we needs a deeper approach to fighting poverty. He equally observed that MDGs pay little or no significant attention to poverty in the urban economy, he is of the opinion that the MDGs should focus as well on provision of decent employment in the productive sector for urban dwellers. He advocated for restructuring of the tax system which he described as being regressive at current based on the extreme reliance on sales and consumption tax system. He argued that most developing economies, elites hardly pay tax (a very regressive distributional tax system).
Mistry (2005) observed that MDGs are laudable projects aimed at poverty reduction. He established a divergence between MDGs and Developmental goals. He pointed out that ever since independence, most Africa states have been faced with developmental failure, and he observed that aid to Africa has not worked because human, social and institutional capital – not financial capital – poses as biding constraint. He advocated for a shift in foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on concentration of funding to a blend of funding and know-how so as to maximize the benefits of MDGs Benno Ndulu, Lolette Kritzinger-Van and Ritra Reinikka in Jan Joost Teunissen (2005) were of the opinion that MDGs are the finest set of goals or promises to the third world especially African countries, however there is need to blend MDGs with economic growth. They identify four major reasons for Africa’s slow growth: low capital accumulation; high price of investment goods for African investors; low productivity of investment; and geographical disadvantages. They advocated for aggressive investment in infrastructure as key to economic growth that will complement MDGs achievements and improved social outcomes. Furthermore, they identify the importance of regional cooperation and integration. According to them, regional integration helps growth and infrastructure and vice versa, which will have a lasting effect on MDGs beyond 2015

2.2       STRUCTURE OF NIGERIA MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS
Consequent to the summit held in New York by the world leaders in September 2000. Participating countries are expected to develop policies, strategies and program that will facilitate the achievement of millennium development goals. This, led to the creation of MDGS affairs in different countries leaded by senior special assistant to the president on MDGS (SSAP-MDGS). Since then, it is commonly known at the MDGS office, subsequently, other offices were opened in all 36 states and they have been operating on projects and program down the ladder to local government.
The MDGS office functions as sectariat to the presidential committee, which guides the nation towards the achievement of MDGS. The structure of the presidential committee consist of; The president, vice president, sectary to the government, head of civil sources, representatives from ministries and agencies, six governors, one member each from upper and lower house of assembly, private sector, civil society, international partners; SSAP MDGs and special adviser to the president on project and programs.
            In the quest towards achieving Millennium Development Goals by government; victual poverty fund (VPF) was established to house debt relief gains. In the year 2007, two innovative mechanisms for achieving the MDGs were put in place. First, conditional grant scheme (CGS), to states and subsequently to local government to execute projects and programs. Second, was social safety net scheme which provide cash or in kind transfer to the poorest in the society. Since the MDGs office has been coming up with one scheme or the other to galvanize effort to achieve the MDGs by 2015.
2.3       ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL- POLITICAL PROFILE OF NIGERIA
Prior to independence in 1960, Nigeria economy largely depended on agriculture; contributing to over 80% of her export earning and above 60% in her gross domestic product. However, with the discovery of oil in large quantity and the rise of oil price in the international market early 1970s, oil refining overtook agriculture as the dominant sector of the economy.
Consequently, oil revenue grew above 200%, this boom in the economy from revenue generated from the sales of oil was not properly and efficiently used. The period was characterized by high profile of Corruption, mismanagement of the oil funds, policy inconsistency and lack of technical know-how.
            Despite the enormous amount generated from the sales of oil, Nigeria is still called developing countries. Noko(2011), argues that between 1990- 2005, Nigeria earnings from oil grew at an average of 10.6%, yet the number of people living on a less than US$1.25  per day over the years has increased to 36%.(AFRODAD,2005 ; world bank, 2008).
Our country endured almost 30 years of military rule in the four decades of her independence with negative consequences on its socio-economic situation. Under military rule, loans were irresponsibly contracted by the military leadership who plundered the nation’s wealth including external loans for personal enrichment. During these periods, corruption and looting were at rampage and serious violation of human rights. Apart from the fact that military rule is characterized by lack of transparency, accountability and good governance. Much of the failure of policy and lack of development has been attributed to the abnormal situation where country is denied democracy and the rule of law, but rather forcefully subject to military rule.(AFRODAD, 2005). The hope that the country lost glory, relief, development and rapid socio-economic growth became dashed as “misguided macroeconomics and debts management policies under civilian government have meet continued sluggish growth of real GDP, high inflation and deepening poverty”.(AFRODAD, 2005).
            Nigeria despite the advent of democracy entered the third millennium with poor economic record. Between 1999 and 2003, growth in real output averaging 3.5% per annum and with an average population growth rate of 2.8% per annum. This economic picture looks bleak and far behind the required minimum growth rate of real GDP of 7% per annual to significantly reduce the number of people living in absolute poverty by half in 2015 and lead to the realization of the Millennium Development Goals(UNDP, 2006).
The 2010 report by the office of the senior special assistant to the president of Nigeria on MDGs reveals that the macroeconomics performance in Nigeria has been buoyed by better fiscal and debt sustainability level and growth improvement. This he stated has taken growth from the “below 1% level it maintained in the past five years and stabilized it at above six percent since the return of democracy. Growth, it observes has come largely from non-oil sector, mostly agriculture and service sector. The oil sector account for less than 25% of the GDP despite providing 95% of foreign earnings,  and 65% of government revenue.
Table 2.1 below shows the Nigeria macroeconomic performance from 1990 to 2009(source: CBN statistical bulletin).
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